Renown Political Analyst Mutahi Ngunyi has come up with three possibles outcomes of the August 8th Presidential elections.
In his weekly analysis on the fifth estate show ,the controversial analyst,who is popularly known for his tyranny of numbers hypothesis in 2013,said there are three hypothesis this time based on statistical simulations,zero sum game and no results as far as presidential results as concerned.
In his first hypothesis named statistical simulations,Mutahi Ngunyi together with his team noted categorically that President Uhuru Kenyatta will win come what may because,i quote, “incumbent Presidents in Africa do not lose elections unless they are incompetent,and last time we checked Uhuru is many things but not incompetent.”
The team added that the GEMA communities (Gikuyu,Embu and Meru)have a total of around 5.6 million votes countrywide and the Kalenjin nation is close to 2.3 million votes and when added together Uhuru starting point will be 7.9million votes.
On the other hand,Raila start at 6.9 million votes when the Kamba,Luo and Luhya votes are tallied.
In his second hypothesis named zero sum game,Uhuru will not win and Raila will lose.
According to this hypothesis,President Uhuru will be guaranteed a second term in office.
The only way the former Prime minister will be sworn in as president of Kenya will be by use of underhanded methods.
The zero sum game will lead to a coalition government where President Uhuru will have to invite NASA Co-principals,Kalonzo Musyoka,Moses Wetangula and Musalia Mudavadi to his government,leaving Raila out.
The third hypothesis is No result.According to this theory,there will be a run-off.
Nonetheless,Prof.Mutahi concluded by urging the President to unite the country by having Kalonzo ,Mudavadi and Wetangula in government if he emerges victorious in August 8th poll.
Below is the video analysis;
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